Polls Open in the Netherlands as Surveys Suggest Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.