UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.